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Tropical Storm MALAKAS (13W) # 05 : ประกาศเตือนภัยเรื่อง “พายุโซนร้อน MALAKAS (มาลากัส/13W) ” ฉบับ

Tropical Storm MALAKAS (13W) # 05 : ประกาศเตือนภัยเรื่อง “พายุโซนร้อน MALAKAS (มาลากัส/13W) ” ฉบับที่ 5
ประกาศศูนย์ร่วมการเตือนภัยไต้ฝุ่น ฮาวาย, สหรัฐฯ (Joint Typhoon Warning Center หรือ JTWC )
สภาวะโดยทั่วไปของพายุหมุนเขตร้อนเมื่อเวลา 13.00น.
ประจำวันที่ 21 กันยายน 2553 ออกประกาศเวลา 16.00 น. ตามเวลาประเทศไทย

ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคด้านตะวันตกตอนเหนือ ทะเลจีนใต้ และอ่าวไทย วันที่ 21 กันยายน 2553 / 15.00 น. ปรากฎพายุหมุนเขตร้อน 1 ลูก / หย่อมความกดอากาศต่ำ - ลูก
1) Tropical Storm MALAKAS (13W,18.2N 144.7E,35kts): เมื่อเวลา 13.00น.วันนี้(21ก.ย.53) พายุโซนร้อน MALAKAS (มาลากัส/13W) มีศูนย์กลางปกคลุมกลางทะเลแปซิฟิค ล่าสุด อยู่ที่ละติจูด 18.2 องศาเหนือ ลองจิจูด 144.7 องศาตะวันออก หรือมีศูนย์กลางอยู่ทางทิศเหนือค่อนตะวันออกเล็กน้อยจากเกาะไซปัน ห่ างประมาณ 343 กิโลเมตร. กำลังเคลื่อนตัวไปทางทิศตะวันตกค่อนทางใต้เล็กน้อยด้วยความเร็ว 4 นอต(7 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง) เมื่อ 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา . มีความเร็วลมสูงสุดใกล้ศูนย์กลางประมาณ 35 นอต(65 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง) ลมกระโชกแรงสูงสุดประมาณ 45นอต(83กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง) ความกดอากาศที่พื้นผิวน้ำทะเลประมาณ 996 มิลลิบาร์ คลื่นทะเลสูงสุดประมาณ 4 เมตรในช่วง 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา…….. / คาดพายุโซนร้อน MALAKAS (มาลากัส/13W) จะเริ่มมีทิศทางเคลื่อนตัวไปทางตะวันตกค่อนทางเหนือมากขึ้นในอีก 12-24 ชั่วโมงข้างหน้า ก่อนที่จะทวีกำลังเป็นไต้ฝุ่น ระดับ 1 ในอีก 36 ชั่วโมงข้างหน้า หรือช่วง ประมาณ 23ก.ย.53 นี้ ก่อนที่พายุนี้มีแนวโน้มเคลื่อนตัวขึ้นเหนือแล้วบ่ายไปทางตะวันออกเข้าใกล้ชายฝั่งตอนใต้ ของประเทศญี่ปุ่น ในอีก 96 ชั่วโมงข้างหน้า หรือในประมาณวันที่ 25 ก.ย. 53 นี้ (ประกาศ Joint Typhoon Warning Center หรือ JTWC )

<เพิ่มเติม/ความเห็น> พายุทั้งหมดไม่มีแนวโน้มเคลื่อนตัวเข้าสู่ไทย … ชื่อ MALAKAS ในภาคแรกรู้สึกว่า จะเป็นพายุโซนร้อนและกลัวแผ่นดิน แต่ภาค 2 อาจรุนแรงถึงระดับ 4-5 ก็เป็นได้ / สำหรับวงสีเขียวคือบริเวณที่มีแนวโน้มพัฒนาเป็นพายุหมุนเขตร้อนในอนาคต (ถ้ามี)


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหวระบบ IR บริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคด้านตะวันตกเมื่อช่วง 20 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียม INFRARED ทุกๆ 1 ชม.
ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคด้านตะวันตกตอนเหนือ (ช่วง ลองจิจูดที่ 100-150 องศาตะวันออก)

ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคด้านตะวันตกตอนเหนือ (ช่วง ลองจิจูดที่ 140-180 องศาตะวันออก)


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณอ่าวเบงกอล ทะเลอันดามัน อ่าวไทย และทะเลจีนใต้ ทุก ๆ 1 ชั่วโมง


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณเอเชียตะวันออกเฉียงใต้ ทุก ๆ 1 ชั่วโมง


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณมหาสมุทรเเปซิฟิคตอนเหนือด้านตะวันตก ทุก ๆ 1 ชั่วโมง


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณประเทศญี่ปุ่น ทุก ๆ 1 ชั่วโมง


ภาพถ่ายแบบเต็ม ทุกๆ 1 ชั่วโมง

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/latest/globe/2048x2048/ir.jpgCLICK เพื่อดูภาพขนาดใหญ่
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/latest/animation/MPEG-2/last-120h.mpgCLICK เพื่อดูภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหว 120 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา หรือ เมื่อ 5 วันที่ผ่านมา UPDATE ทุกๆ 1 ชั่วโมง

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ภาพการคาดหมายเส้นทางการเดินพายุ ล่วงหน้า 5 วัน ทุกๆ 6 ชม.
บริเวณพื้นที่ตาข่ายสีดำ รูปกรวย(โคน) แสดงถึง ความไม่แน่นอน/ความเป็นไปได้ที่จะได้รับผลกระทบหรือศูนย์กลางพายุอาจจะพัดผ่าน
***เครื่องของท่านอาจไม่ปรากฏภาพดังกล่าว ให้ CLICK ขวา > Show Picture***
ที่มา Joint Typhoon Warning Center หรือ JTWC *ต้นฉบับ*





http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/storm/storm08W.html
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/nwp.latest.gif

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ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหวระบบ INFRARED ของ พายุ ทุกๆ 1 ชั่วโมง


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ ENHANCED INFRARED ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) บ่งบอกถึงระดับความรุนแรงที่ศูนย์กลางพายุ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ AVN COLOR ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) บ่งบอกถึงระดับความเร็วลมของพายุ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ WATER VAPOR ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) บ่งบอกถึงระดับความหนาแน่นของเมฆฝนของพายุ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ FUNKTOP ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) บ่งบอกถึงระดับความรุนแรงของฝนและปริมาณน้ำฝนของพายุบริเวณต่างๆ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ BLACK and WHITE (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) บ่งบอกถึงค่าระดับความรุนแรงของพายุ(DVORAK) เช่น ส่วนโค้ง ลมดิ่ง ปริมาณเมฆฝนที่ศูนย์กลาง กำแพงตาพายุ และตาพายุ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ JSL ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) เป็นการแบ่งระดับความรุนแรงของพายุในบริเวณต่างๆ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ RAINBOW ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) บ่งบอกถึงระดับอุณหภูมิที่พื้นผิวเมฆและชั้นบรรยากาศของพายุ


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ INFRARED ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง)


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ VISIBLE ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) เป็นภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมแบบเห็นจริง เฉพาะเวลากลางวันเนื่องจากการหมุนของโลก และแสงอาทิตย์


ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ RGB ของพายุ (ทุกๆ 1ชั่วโมง) เป็นภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเรืองแสงสามารถเห็นได้ทั้งกลางวันและกลางคืน


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ติดตามการเคลื่อนไหวและรายละเอียดของพายุหมุนเขตร้อนล่าสุดทุก ๆ 6 ชั่วโมง
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP902010
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP132010

ระดับความเร็วลมของพายุล่าสุด (Wind Analysis)


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การพยากรณ์ โดยJoint Typhoon Warning Center (รายละเอียด)

1 การพยากรณ์ เเละการคาดหมาย ของพายุ 5 วันล่วงหน้า ทุกๆ 6 ชั่วโมง
WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.1N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 43.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 144.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210654Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY
TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, TS 13W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION
INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY THOUGH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z
AND 220900Z.//
NNNN




2 การวิเคราะห์ เเละการคาดการณ์ ของพายุ ทุกๆ 12 ชั่วโมง
WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190
NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 202332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER
VALUE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW. TROPICAL STORM 13W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. DEEP CONVECTION IS
PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS
EXPANDING AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH
REORIENTS, ALLOWING OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE AND REDUCING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. SINCE THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE WAS ISSUED, THE
TAU 0 TO TAU 48 FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN STORM MOTION, AND THE TAU 120 FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF A MORE
MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED STEERING PATTERN. THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY
HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT.
B. GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU
48 AS THE CURRENT STEERING REGIME PERSISTS. THEREAFTER, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH,
ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REORIENTS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX. AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72,
VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ENABLE MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS,
WHICH DEPICTS AND SUDDEN AND UNREALISTIC WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE AND A RESULTING POLEWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, TS 13W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD
AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN QUITE
INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDE A STRONG
BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
MORE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN AND RESULTANT TRACK
THAN THE GFS, NOGAPS, AND UKMET MODELS. THIS FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK CONSENSUS IN THE LATER TAUS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER WESTWARD IF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS TOWARD THE ECMWF DEPICTION.//
NNNN



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รวมเว็บภาพถ่ายดาวเทียม ทุกๆ 30 นาที – 1 ชั่วโมง บริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคตะวันตกในซีกโลกเหนือ (North West Pacific)
1. ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ INFRARED บริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคตะวันตก
1.1 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ West Pacific/South China Sea ของ MTSAT
http://205.85.40.22/sat/gms_nwtrop/ir/nwtrop_ir.jpg
1.2 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ West Pacific/South China Sea ของ NOAA (โนอา)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSIRW.JPG
1.3 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ อ่าวเบงกอล อ่าวไทย ทะเลจีนใต้ จนถึง ฝั่งตะวันออกของฟิลิปปินส์
http://205.85.40.22/sat/gms_a/goesa.jpg
1.4 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ ทะเลตะวันออกของฟิลิปปินส์ จนสิ้นสุดที่ ลองจิจูดที่ 180.0 องศาตะวันออก
http://205.85.40.22/sat/gms_b/goesb.jpg
1.5 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคด้านตะวันตกทั้งหมด
http://205.85.40.22/sat/gms_full/ir/gmsfull_ir.jpg
1.6 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ มหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคด้านตะวันตกตอนเหนือ อ่าวเบงกอล และมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคใต้
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/jtgio_ir2.jpg
2. ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมระบบ VISIBLE (ภาพเห็นจริง) บริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคตะวันตก
2.1 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ West Pacific/South China Sea ของ MTSAT
http://205.85.40.22/sat/gms_nwtrop/vis/nwtrop_vis.jpg
2.2 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมบริเวณ West Pacific/South China Sea ของ NOAA (โนอา)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSVSW.JPG
3. ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหวระบบ INFRARED บริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิคตะวันตก
3.1 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหว บริเวณอ่าวไทย ทะเลจีนใต้ จนถึง ทะเลตะวันออกของฟิลิปปินส์
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmsw.html
3.2 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหว บริเวณเกาะกวม (Guam) มหาสมุทรแปซิฟิค
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html
3.3 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหว บริเวณอ่าวไทย ทะเลจีนใต้ และมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิค
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-ir4.html
3.4 ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียมเคลื่อนไหว บริเวณมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิค ทั้งหมด
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/movies/gmsir/gmsirjava.html

Link การพยากรณ์ คาดหมาย ภาพถ่ายดาวเทียม เส้นทางเดินพายุ ทุกๆ 6 ชั่วโมง
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php(1-Minute Mean/ประเทศสหรัฐฯ) ***ต้นฉบับของ 1-Minute Mean
http://www.wunderground.com/(1-Minute Mean/ประเทศสหรัฐฯ)
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/tropical/(1-Minute Mean/ประเทศสหรัฐฯ)
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/(1-Minute Mean/ประเทศอังกฤษ)
http://www.kma.go.kr/ (10-Minute Mean/ประเทศเกาหลี)
http://www.jma.go.jp (10-Minute Mean/ประเทศญี่ปุ่น)
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/(10-Minute Mean/ประเทศญี่ปุ่น)
อื่นๆ
ความรู้เกี่ยวกับ สัญลักษณ์ของระดับลมที่เกิดขึ้นทั้งบนบกและทะเล (WIND ANALYSYS มาตราโบฟอร์ด) หมายถึงอะไร ???
http://www.uppic.net/ib/beauford.gif

==================================================================================================

*** หมายเหตุ; การพยากรณ์และการคำนวณพายุหมุนเขตร้อนนี้โดยหน่วยงาน ศูนย์ร่วมการเตือนภัยไต้ฝุ่น (Joint Typhoon Warning Center หรือ JTWC) ของ สหรัฐฯ เป็นการพยากรณ์ตามระดับมาตรวัดพายุหมุนเขตร้อนของ ซัฟเฟอร์ – ซิมป์สัน (Saffir – Simpson Scale)ของสหรัฐ ฯ ตามข้อกำหนดจากต่างประเทศบริเวณที่ได้รับอิทธิพลจากเฮอร์ริเคนซึ่งส่วนใหญ่ยอมรับใช้กัน พยากรณ์และคำนวณความเร็วลมที่รอบศูนย์กลางพายุที่ค่าเฉลี่ย 1 นาที(1-Minute Mean) ใช้กรณีเดียวกับศูนย์เฮอร์ริเคนแห่งชาติ (National Hurricane Center หรือ NHC) / ต่างจากประเทศไทย ที่มีการพยากรณ์และคำนวณพายุหมุนเขตร้อนตาม ระดับมาตรวัดพายุหมุนเขตร้อนตามมาตรฐานสากล (International Standard) ตามข้อกำหนดจากต่างประเทศบริเวณที่ได้รับอิทธิพลจากไต้ฝุ่นซึ่งส่วนใหญ่ยอมรับใช้กัน พยากรณ์และคำนวณความเร็วลมที่รอบศูนย์กลางพายุที่ค่าเฉลี่ย 10 นาที (10-Minute Mean) ดังนั้นข้อมูลทั้ง ค่าความกดอากาศ ความเร็วลม ฯลฯ จะไม่เหมือนกัน
1)ระดับมาตรวัดพายุหมุนเขตร้อนของ ซัฟเฟอร์ – ซิมป์สัน (Saffir – Simpson Scale) พยากรณ์โดยศูนย์ร่วมการเตือนภัยไต้ฝุ่น (Joint Typhoon Warning Center หรือ JTWC)ของสหรัฐ ฯ ตามข้อกำหนดจากต่างประเทศบริเวณที่ได้รับอิทธิพลจากเฮอร์ริเคน และส่วนใหญ่ยอมรับใช้กัน / ค่าเฉลี่ยความเร็วลมที่รอบศูนย์กลางพายุ 1 นาที(1-Minute Mean)
ระดับของซัฟเฟอร์-ซิมพ์สัน --------------------- ความเร็วลมสูงสุดที่รอบศูนย์กลาง
Tropical Depression (TD); พายุดีเปรสชัน ----- 25 – 33 นอต หรือ 46-61 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Tropical Storm (TS); พายุโซนร้อน ------------ 34-63 นอต หรือ 63-117 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Typhoon (Category 1); ไต้ฝุ่นระดับ 1 ---------- 64-83 หรือ 119-154 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Typhoon (Category 2); ไต้ฝุ่นระดับ 2 ---------- 84-96 นอต หรือ 156-178 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Typhoon (Category 3); ไต้ฝุ่นระดับ 3 ---------- 97-113 นอต หรือ 180-209 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Typhoon (Category 4); ไต้ฝุ่นระดับ 4 ---------- 114-135 นอต หรือ 211-250 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Super Typhoon (Category 5); ซูเปอร์ไต้ฝุ่นระดับ 5 ---------- 135 นอต หรือ 250 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง ขึ้นไป

2)ระดับมาตรวัดพายุหมุนเขตร้อนประเทศไทยใช้ตามมาตรฐานสากล (INTERNATIONAL STANDARD)ตามข้อกำหนดจากต่างประเทศบริเวณที่ได้รับอิทธิพลจากไต้ฝุ่น และส่วนใหญ่ยอมรับใช้กัน / ค่าเฉลี่ยความเร็วลมที่รอบศูนย์กลางพายุ 10 นาที (10-Minute Mean)
ระดับ -------------------------------- ความเร็วลมสูงสุดที่รอบศูนย์กลาง
Tropical Depression (TD) --------- >33 นอต หรือ >62 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Tropical Storm (TS) --------------- 34 – 47 นอต หรือ 63 – 88 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Severe Tropical Storm (STS) ----- 48 – 63 นอต หรือ 89 – 118 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง
Typhoon (TY) ---------------------- <64 นอต ขึ้นไป หรือ <119 กิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมงขึ้นไป


โดยคุณ TC-13W (125.24.107.85) [21-09-2010 19:15]




ความเห็นที่ 1 โดยคุณ thanarat Mail to thanarat (114.128.130.2) [21-09-2010 20:21] #32344

การทำนายของสำนักต่างๆ ยังคงทำนายว่า มาลากัสกลัวแผ่นดิน เลี้ยวขึ้นญี่ปุ่นเลย
ลูกนี้ผมว่าคงมาเฉียดแถวๆ ไต้หวันครับ
ส่วนลูกต่อไปพอจะเห็นลางๆ แล้วครับว่าแถวไหน



ความเห็นที่ 2 โดยคุณ ไทย Mail to ไทย Member [21-09-2010 20:29] #32345 ไทย's Profile

ลูกต่อไปก็น่าจะอยู่แถว ฟิลลิปินส์ นี้หละครับ



ความเห็นที่ 3 โดยคุณ thanarat Mail to thanarat (222.123.229.28) [23-09-2010 02:45] #32374

ตอนนี้ก็กำลังแรงขึ้นนิดหน่อยครับประมาณ 50 kt ความกดอากาศผิวน้ำทะเลประมาณ 985 hPa ครับ (18.00น. อ้างอิงจากhttp://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/201012.html.enครับ
คาดว่าจะแรงขึ้นจนเป็นไต้ฝุ่นวันนี้ครับ



ความเห็นที่ 4 โดยคุณ TC-13W (119.46.144.66) [23-09-2010 09:15] #32378

07.00น.(23ก.ย.53)

เป็นไต้ฝุ่นระดับ 1 อย่างรวดเร็วไปเเล้วครับ

รอขอมูลช่วงเย็นๆ - คำ



ความเห็นที่ 5 โดยคุณ thanarat Mail to thanarat (113.53.106.178) [23-09-2010 16:05] #32386

แต่ว่ายังช้ากว่าฟานาปีนะครับ ฮา... (นับเฉพาะปีนี้ครับ)



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